Childhood

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¡§Wake up, wake up my dear little girl,¡¨ said a soft voice. How could it be so soft? Am I still dreaming? Just than the voice said again, ¡§Wai wai, be a good girl. Wake up or you will be late.¡¨ Slowly I open my eyes.

Once I really think of things happen like that, mother calling me Wai wai and wake me up in a soft voice. It was a good time, when I was just five. Mother was so kind to me, just like an angle. It was the right for me too stay in bed for a longer time. But now she was not an angle, only a woman that yells and cried her daughter to wake up. Stay in bed for longer no way!

When I was five, mother would kindly wake me up, then lead me the way to the washroom. Helping me to make the toothpaste, watching me to brush my teeth. After dressing up the tidy, clean school uniform, we would have breakfast together round the table. Chatting what would be up that day, like will teddy be lonely when I was at school, I didn¡¦t want to leaave him etc. Then mother would promise helping me to take care of him. After that we would walked to school, hand by hand.

Walking to school is the most presurious time having with mother. Now she will just straightly order in a loud voice, ¡§Go rightaway to the bus-stop! Or you will be late¡¨ No more soft voice, walking and chatting ¡Konly shouts and orders.

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Now you know why I will choose to stay at five years old all my life. I can enjoy all the caring and love from mother, having all my rights. Besides I think five years old is my happiest time through my life up till now.

In five I was studing the kinergarden, learning words and playing in the coverplaygroud. Most of all are having teas and little snap. I can still remember the teatime song ¡§ Tea-time tea-time fun, fun, fun, come and have it everyone.¡¨I enjoy having teatime most; I think those snacks are the delicious ones in the world. Each day I only need to learn a few words than I can play with other childrens. There is not even any workload to say. Compare to now when you are at home lots of homework are waiting for you, the work loads are so heavy that sometimes even you work till late to night you can¡¦t finish it. You can never think of having any snaps. So five years old is just a good time.

During this time you can express your feelings out freely, just cry out, as you want. Not like now if you want to cry you might think of many things, like will people laugh at you etc. All the things is pure and simply.

You may agrue that five years old is not the best time because you can¡¦t go out shopping with your friends, instead just stay at home playing toys. But I tresasure this part of my life most! Since I can enjoy the care, love, freedom (at home) from my parents and the simple life style.

Cherry lau.

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Libertarianism and totalitarianism

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How far should government go to maintain the rights of the people, provide public necessities, and promote equality among the people? One argument is that the government should control every aspect of the lives of its citizens. The opposite government is one that leaves all control in the hands of each citizen. It seems that a perfect government would be somewhere in the middle.

Totalitarianism is the type of government in which the state has complete and absolute control over almost every part of a person's life. The government makes a person a slave to the state and gives no freedom of choice to any of its citizens. This type of government may be viewed as an extreme form of conservatism. Conservatism believes that the main purpose of the government is to maintain order though out the people. Conservatism puts great effort into continuing traditions. For example, a woman serves only in a domestic role and religion is a necessity in the family and in school life. Totalitarianism would take the process a step further by controlling how each member of the family will serve the government and dictating what particular religion all citizens will practice. Totalitarianism is an extreme extension of conservatism because it does not just want to keep people in order it wants to control every part of a person's life. Finally, totalitarianism believes in total equality within the government's tight restrictions, but conservatives do not believe in using the governmental forces to control the lives of its citizens. Totalitarianism is often considered a dictatorship type of government because in most cases the totalitarian government is ruled by one political party head. Most totalitarian governments disagree with groups such as labor unions and trade associations, but a libertarian government prohibits a restriction on individual action laws such as drinking, marijuana and other drugs.

The second type of government is libertarianism, which gives a person his or her full individual rights. It disagrees with all government actions except the ones that are necessary to defend life and possessions. Libertarianism favors a laissez-faire economic system, which means, "let people do as they please." Libertarianism is an extreme extension of liberalism. Liberalists believe that the people should be free but also believe that the government has a duty to help out the disadvantaged. Liberalism does extend many rights to its citizens but has a government structure that funds social programs. Libertarianism does not support a government that interferes in any way, even to offer assistance with social programs. Liberalists believe that individual freedom (libertarianism) cannot work because the government must control obstacles in order for the people to enjoy their freedom. This is the extreme opposite of totalitarianism, which does not allow any freedom of choice for its citizens and in many cases does not provide for the basic needs of its citizens through social programs.

Even though these governments have many different qualities they do have some similarities. Both totalitarianism and libertarianism exist in countries today and have existed in countries in the past. These governments have helped the countries to prosper in the world. Some examples of successful totalitarian governments in the past are Germany under Hitler, USSR under Stalin and Italy under Mussolini. Other times these governments have tried to succeed in certain countries but have failed. Sometimes a change in the type of government is necessary to fit the present state of a particular country. The two governments are alike in another way because neither has an established constitution. Under a totalitarian government a citizen's life is controlled by the decisions of a dictator so a constitution would not be relevant. Libertarianism is a free government allowing each citizen to make his own choices so a global constitution would not meet the needs of each person. Finally, representatives of both forms of government have tried to persuade the American people to abandon democracy. For example, the Libertarian Party had a candidate in each presidential election from 17 through 16 but not one of these candidates got more than 1 million votes.

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Human Resources: We Can Solve All of the Company's Problems

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An example of effective Human Resources (HR) contributing to the success of the company is within the AT&T Corporation. The company's goal is to turn the domestic long distance form into an "any distance, any service" global company (Miller, 000). Mirian Graddick-Weir, the head of AT&T's HR, is responsible for making sure that the momentum toward the goal never loses speed. The responsibility is normal, but the manner in which Graddick-Weir goes about accomplishing the responsibility is not. Most experts, like Robert Bacal, feel the function of Human Resources is to be a support department in an organization, providing assistance to other departments in a manner in which those departments can remain functional and profitable. Experts do not consider Human Resources' function to be a leadership role. Unlike most companies, AT&T's HR is responsible in leading the company in the transformation to globalization. Through leadership, AT&T's HR department decreased expenses, took advantage of technological innovation, fulfilled attrition requirements and yet still maintained morale. AT&T's HR managed to complete these separate and effective accomplishments when most departments in a company cannot manage even one accomplishment. AT&T's diversion from the norm, by placing the HR into a leadership role, proved to be instrumental in the company's massive transformation into a global conglomerate.

Expenses

The first accomplishment began within the HR department itself. AT&T's goal was to cut annual costs by $ billion, so the HR team began by reinventing the department into a high-value, low-cost strategic service to the company. The Human Resource Department reduced itself by a 5 percent head count, cut department expenses by 48 percent, and reduced the HR cost per employee by 4 percent. The model Human Resources devised estimated expenses to be lowered by $40 million over a two year period. Through the Education Council, a group of HR and business unit leaders, $ million was saved in company training expenses.

Technology

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The Human Resource Department at AT&T determined that the trick to cutting costs and maintain effectiveness was in making an investment in the infrastructure of the company. Although the company's goal was to cut annual costs, the HR team had the company spend $0 million on automation and technology in order to alleviate HR duties. AT&T's hiring process is now 8 percent electronically processed. The automated system also reduced the process time for filling positions from 10 days down to 48 days.

The HR department's direction toward automation includes an intranet for employee services. Training, benefits, policies, pension and payroll information are offered on the intranet. Intranet options are preferred and utilized by 80 percent of the staff for payroll processing, 0 percent for savings plans and 55 percent for benefits and 5 percent for training. A toll-free number is available for employees without web access. Fortunately, the $0 million investment that HR led the company into is justified through the ability to measure the benefits.

Serving the Employees

Graddick-Weir has made sure that AT&T's HR maintains the primary function of the department's role serving the needs of the company members. AT&T's HR department's philosophy is to put the people first. The department understands that the true role of HR is to be a coach, advisor and a good listener. AT&T's Human Resource Department does not believe in a one-size-fits-all approach when working with company members and solving problems. Although the company objectives are a priority, the HR team makes the employees the top priority. Human Resources has made placing stock options into the employee hands a major goal and does so by giving employees grants through options and business unit pool allocations. With support from officers, the HR team is attempting to break the bureaucracy, cut down on the hierarchy and make the employees feel more like owners of the company. The HR department is also trying to change compensation to a market based structure in order to attract and retain top talent and withhold realistic programs sensitive to the job market. Cutting corners in the investment in staff is not an effective way to cut costs for a company and still maintain a reputable business with a respectable profit margin.

When AT&T Human Resources had to take 10,000 employees out of the company, the department came up with the Voluntary Retirement Incentive Program. Leaving the company was less traumatic on a voluntary basis and had plenty of incentive to make it worthwhile. Human Resources gave employees pension incentives, a more liberalized retiree health-care package and offered career resource assistance. Employees that started their own business received $10,000 as assistance. In addition to the information provided through the intranet, the HR team organized huge financial seminars for the employees. The seminars covered any information the employees would need to know about their pensions and investment.

HR at AT&T is taken very seriously. The department has a two-day training event to further HR knowledge when supporting the staff. The training covered subjects like defining HR's role, translating business issues into HR interventions and leading change to achieve company-wide objectives. The material covered is far from the norm. Most Human Resource training covers defining the department's role, usually in subjects like sexual harassment, state and federal employment laws and workplace safety. AT&T has broken the mold and defined the department's role as one of leadership in helping the company transform in a number of different areas. Human Resources at AT&T demonstrated outstanding innovation, structured leadership and excellent follow-through. Instead of being a support department to other departments, the HR team has become a fundamental department to a company willing to try new ideas. The department mastered keeping pace with business changes while undergoing reinvention and doing more with less. HR at AT&T was so successful with the policies and changes implemented that it has become a prototype for the company's cost-cutting goals. Rather impressive for a department that the experts claim should be seen and not heard.

Bacal, R. (000). From the corporate file the role of the Human Resources

Departments. Work11.com. Retrieved June , 00 from the World Wide Web http//work11.com/articles/hrrole/htm

Miller, R. (na). Human Resource executive of the year going the distance. Human

Resource Executive. Retrieved June , 00 from the World Wide Web http//www.workindex.com/hrexecutive/weir.asp

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Chinese Hotel Industry- Values

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Introduction

Since the implementation of economic reform and opening up in 178, China has adopted a pragmatic approach to running the economy which has resulted in a socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics.

This socialist market economy has allowed China to maintain her socialist status but adopt practices of other advanced economies to modernise the country and to improve the standard of living for her people. For example, while land still belongs to the socialist state, the right to use it for 0, 50 or 70 years can be the same as in any capitalist country. Economic reforms initially in the primary sector, followed by the secondary sector and recently in the tertiary sector such as retailing, have released the dynamic force of individual initiatives. This combined with the rapid growth of foreign investment have propelled the economy at double digit growth at a time when the whole Western world is agonising with the pain of high unemployment-rates and continued downsizing programmes even by blue chip companies.

The economic reform and the rapid economic growth have transformed Chinese society. Over 110 million people have joined village and town enterprises and are transformed from under-employed farm labourers to wage earners with money in their pockets.

For people who are able to exercise private initiative more than others, they stand a better chance of obtaining a bigger share of the economic pie. They comprise the increasingly emerging middle income household in China.

The Emerging Xiao Kang Family or Middle Income Household in China

Middle class is certainly a Western concept for the Chinese. In China however, there is a lot of discussion on Xiao Kang (little rich) family. In a way Xiao Kang families are the Chinese version of the middle class.

What is Xiao Kang ? Xiao Kang, in Confucius ideology, is the state of a society where people live and work happily. In todays context, the official view of Xiao Kang livelihood means the following

1. People eat well, having more quality and nutritious food.

. People dress well, paying more attention to aesthetic outlook and appearance.

. People live well, having nicely furnished home plus consumer durables which provide convenience and entertainment.

4. People enjoy a cultural life with significant increase in circulation of newspapers and magazines.

Back in 184, Deng Xiao-peng, the architect of economic reform in China set the target of Xiao Kang livelihood for the whole country to be achieved by the year 000. He recognised that for the size of a country as big as China with great regional differences between cities and countryside, he would need to set a modest target. The target he and the central government planners set was US$800 GDP per capita in 180 dollar value.

Middle income household by definition refers to urban families. It is therefore important that we examine the middle income household or the Xiao Kang families in urban China. China has 1. billion people, 5 percent live in cities - a total of about 567 cities.

In terms of GDP per capita, it is interesting to note that the average city is three times higher than the average for villages and towns. The average of coastal cities is double that of the average city and the average of special economic zones (SEZ) is again double that of the coastal cities. In a way, the more open the economy is, the higher is the economic development and living standard of the people. The magnitude of differential is as high as twelve times in terms of GDP per capita when we compare the special economic zones with the average village / town.

The economic development strategy in China is a points-line-surface progression. The points are the coastal cities and special economic zones which are developed first bringing about prosperity to the whole coastal area (i.e. line) and from there reaching inland gradually bringing prosperity to the entire surface of the country which, of course, will take many decades to achieve.

Since some places grow faster and earlier than others, we are already witnessing the result of the economic reform over the past one and a half decades. That is the emergence of the Xiao Kang consumers and families who have the discretionary income to purchase modern consumer goods and services.

Where do these Xiao Kang families come from? The main sources are as follows

1. Managers who work in the existing 100,000 joint-ventures and wholly owned foreign companies (approved joint-ventures currently number over 0,000).

. Owners of the 0 million private enterprise and self-employed business which are known as Ge-Ti-Hu in China.

. A large number of managers of the 1 million township enterprises (semi-private enterprises).

4. A large number of managers in foreign trade corporations, banks, insurance companies and stock brokerage firms.

5. Managers in well-run and profitable state enterprise.

There are no precise figures about the total number of the Xiao Kang families but it would probably be in the region of 0 to 40 million families for the whole country or around 0 million families in the cities. The latter constitutes close to 0 percent of the urban population.

It is encouraging to note that the economy continues to open up with increasing foreign investment and that restrictions on many service sectors are being further relaxed. We can, therefore, expect more people reaping benefits of the economic reform and hence more Xiao Kang families.

The Xiao Kang families or the middle class in China also express their needs in different ways. Lets talk about education first.

Higher Education

More and more young people of Xiao Kang families are enrolling for higher education. They see having a college degree as the route to success. Since 178, enrolment has more than tripled, to .5 million.

But higher education, which used to be free in China, will now carry a price-tag. More top-rated colleges in China are now charging students annual tuition fees. Within two years, tuition will be charged at all of Chinas 1,000 over universities.

Graduates of the past were required to accept jobs chosen for them by the State as a repayment for free education. Now, by paying for their education. students will have greater leverage in selecting their careers.

The government also has plans of establishing computer courses in some primary and middle schools. In recent years, the country has seen the proliferation of pre-schools and private schools in major cities.

At the workfront, pre-employment and on-the-job training in different professions have been gradually introduced to improve efficiency. China is now staging a massive training programme to train certified public accountants across the country. The target is to train more than 60,000 CPAs in the next five years, bringing the total to 100,000 by the end of the century. The country has at present about 8,000 CPAs.

Better Housing Conditions

The Chinese Xiao Kang families are spending more of their income in acquiring their own homes or decorating their existing apartments. This is reflected in the average expenditure pattern of urban households.

The surge in building of homes in China is also reflected by the rising living space per capita in both urban and especially rural areas where land is easier to find.

How large is the home market? According to official sources, the target for home building in the cities and towns (excluding countryside) is 00 million square meters a year. This represents a building boom of three to four million apartments in urban China each year for many years to come. The home market for the countryside is almost four times that of the urban areas, or 750 million square meters a year.

In Beijing alone, the estimate for reconstructing dangerous and old houses in the city amounts to RMB8 billion or US$. billion. Beijing has over 160 million square meters of old residential houses, accounting for one-third of the total area. Beijing is one of the few Chinese cities testing Chinas first fully commercial housing scheme backed by the World Bank.

In Shanghai, it is estimated that about 1.5 million households or 60 percent of the citys total households are living in premises that need massive repair, with their areas totalling 5 million square meters.

In Guangzhou, the demand for luxury homes exceed supply, Both the rich local Chinese and expatriates are snapping luxury villas completed in recent years.

Indoor renovation and decoration is now almost like fashion in the cities. Xiao Kang families want to live more comfortably at home. Many change the floors of their apartments, wall-paper the walls, renovate the kitchen, upgrade the doors or window frames or enlarge the sitting rooms etc. Official estimate of the indoor decoration market amounts to 15 billion yuan or about US$ billion a year. This figure can only go up due to rising consumer expectation and housing boom everywhere in China.

More Informed Populace

The information revolution is steadily coming to China and this is going to play a great role in changing societys attitudes. The proliferation of information and entertainment services has become a vital part of Chinas modernisation leading to new ideas and new aspirations.

Even in the tightly regulated area of mass media, we witness the setting up of Easy FM radio by AWA of Australia, and Joy FM radio by Metro News of Hong Kong. Other electronic media such as BBC, USIA, CNN and CETV (Robert Chuas China Entertainment Television Broadcast Ltd) have achieved different degrees of success in penetrating the China market.

Trade magazines and tabloids have begun to grow roots in China in the past 10 years or so. Consumers are now increasingly exposed to a variety of titles now serving many market sectors, such as computers and electronics, medicine, technology and industrial sectors.

Catching up with its Asian neighbours, China is now on the threshold of a computer explosion. Computer product sales in China surged 4 percent in 1 to US$ billion, up five-fold in 10, with hardware accounting for 60-70 percent. The sale of PCs increased 80 percent to 450,000 units. By the end of the century, China could become the worlds biggest PC market.

Moreover, China plans to set up a national computer network to link its over 1,000 universities and colleges by the year 000. The country intends to computerise its educational and research institutions and train specialised personnel for the information superhighway. In fact, Guangdong Province started operating three data communication network which can transmit data, voice, image and video information.

Increased Mobility

While private autos are not yet common at the moment, cars are now at the top of the list for well-to-do families. In fact, China is planning to produce a family car to market to the middle income consumer in the next decade. This means more frequent contacts with people in other areas, convenience in travel, and literally a faster lifestyle.

Currently, the annual demand for motor cars of all types is slightly over one million but will rise to the three million level by 000 and around six million by 010. Demand for family car is expected to reach half a million by 000 and .5 million by 010.

The current annual demand for motorcycles is more than three times that for motor cars. The annual demand growth is 50 percent plus for the past three years and the trend is likely to continue for sometime.

Individuals of the Xiao Kang families also want to see the world. At the moment, there is a lot of procedures governing overseas travel, hence many official business travel is actually a disguise for pleasure trips. Overseas travel by PRC nationals were . million in 1 and probably about four million in 14. Estimate for the year 000 is 10 million. The Hong Kong Tourist Association reported that mainland Chinese travellers to Hong Kong reached 1. million last year and is now the largest source of visitors to Hong Kong for the first time, replacing Taiwan in top spot. Mainland Chinese s increased spending to US$1.4 billion, up percent compared to 1.

South-east Asia, particularly Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, is another main destination for many PRC travellers.

Expressways and railways are being built in various parts of China to improve the transport system within the country. New international airports are likewise being planned or built in Zhuhai, Shenzhen, Pudong and airport expansion work is being planned or carried out in 40 other Chinese cities. China now has 78 aircraft and will need at least 800 more aircraft over the next 15 years according to Chinese sources.

More Leisure Pursuits

Economic reform and opening up of the country have also helped to set better working conditions. The Chinese people now enjoy a new working environment, which means fixed hours, standard holidays and vacation periods. Prior to recent reforms, most Chinese employees worked six- to seven-day weeks with no vacation and few holidays. More time for activities outside of work has generated a new demand for leisure activities and products, domestic travel tours and sporting activities and equipment. China has announced a 40-hour work week (five-day week) effective May 1, 15, which is going to further boost the leisure industry.

Discos, night-clubs, and karaoke bars have proliferated in Chinas major and secondary cities.

American-style cinemas are soon to appear in China. Chinas huge audience and limited recreational facilities provide the ideal conditions for state-of-the-art cinema in the country.

Golf courses with extensive resort facilities and hotels have been built or are being built in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Shenzhen, Beihai and a few other major cities. Formula One racing is also held periodically in Zhuhai.

More theme parks and play areas are being opened for Chinas children.

Changing Consumption Patterns

Chinese consumer preferences change with the time and place. The adventurous marketers who dare to challenge tradition and engage in market research have made significant inroads into the Chinese market. We are now witnessing

• The greatest tea drinking country beginning to consume coffee.

• The rapid expansion of Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola in a beverage market which was originally dominated by the orange flavour.

• A country which is proud of its three hundred ways of cooking a chicken welcomes Kentucky Fried Chicken with open arms.

• Dogs become pets at home instead of cuisine on dinner tables!

More and more Chinese consumers are patronising fast-food outlets. McDonalds and Kentucky Fried Chicken each has a few dozen outlets in China. Other outlets such as California Fried Chicken, Pizza Hut, and Cafe de Coral are also present in China. The government has set its direction for the development of the fast-food industry by continuing the import of foreign-flavoured fast-food in order to enrich Chinas fast-food market.

The rapid social changes are also reflected in consumer aspirations which have changed with the times.

In the 70s the Three Bigs - durable goods which people aspired to own - were a bicycle, a sewing machine and a radio.

In the 80s, the Three Bigs were a TV, a washer and a refrigerator.

In the 0s, the Three Bigs are a VCR, a motor cycle and a telephone.

Currently, even Chinese cities have low telephone penetration. In 14, China has 0 million telephone lines, 10 million pagers and over one million mobile phones.

Gradually, more and more Chinese consumers in urban areas are snapping up designer fashion, high-priced jewellery, Swiss chocolates, French wines, Italian shoes, American cosmetics, personal computers, video disk players and even imported cars.

Chinas demand for polished diamonds will increase four-fold in the year 000.

In 14, Chinas demand for gold reached a record high of 4 metric tons and demand for the first quarter of 15 increased by 4 percent compared to same period of the previous year.

More Chinese consumers are now buying Swiss watches which are retailed through high-class merchants in many of the major cities where they maintain luxurious shops with impressive western-style window displays and showrooms.

Shanghais fashion industry has more than 4,000 factories, providing 50,000 jobs and turning out goods and services worth US$1. billion last year. Wool-producing countries are targeting China with blitz TV advertising as part of a new US$5 million campaign aimed at wooing young Chinese buyers. China was the only country in which a TV advertising campaign was being run. Last month, Shanghai staged an international fashion festival, marking another major step towards becoming a world fashion centre.

Hence, with the Chinese consumers spending power becoming stronger, more and more local and foreign investments are pouring into Chinas retail industry. More than 500 supermarkets have sprung up in Shanghai alone and more people are taking advantage of these facilities.

Yaohan, the Japanese retail chain, announced that they planned to build 1,000 department stores/supermarkets in China in the next 15 years.

And in the near future, there will be a significant increase in the number of retail outlets in China accepting foreign credit cards. This is part of the process of developing a new retail distribution system throughout the country.

Chinas first credit card was issued in Guangzhou in 18. By end of 1, more than four million cards had been issued and credit card transactions amounted to US$ billion. The use of credit card is now being promoted to the 00 million residents of 1 designated provinces and cities. The government hopes to have more than 00 million credit cards issued by year 000.

Conclusion

The opening up of the economy and society and the rapidly rising purchasing power of the population have accelerated change in China at so fast a rate that the country is writing a new chapter in her history. China is experiencing a quantum leap in many facets of its peoples life such as

Clothing From military uniforms to Western suits.

Food From Chinese congee to hamburger.

Building From tile houses to skyscrapers.

Transportation From bicycles to underground mass transmit.

Office equipment From abacus to PC, some using 486 or pentium.

As China is rapidly transforming from a centralised planned economy to a market-oriented society, the Xiao Kang families or the Chinese Middle Class will continue to grow. Their emergence and growth, initially concentrated in the cities, will gradually spread out to the towns and suburbs as the towns become more urbanised and as people become more mobile. The Xiao Kang livelihood supported by continued economic reform will continue to spread out from focal points of the cities to areas and regions, bringing prosperity to more and more people in this vast country. What does all this mean to us, marketers and professionals? I would just like to conclude by saying, The rapidly changing lifestyle in China means there will be a huge market for modern consumer goods and services and therefore greater business opportunities for all of us.

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Project Estimation Techniques

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

. ABSTRACT

. INTRODUCTION

Cheap University Papers on Project Estimation Techniques

4. S/W PROJECT ESTIMATION

Size Estimation

Effort Estimation

Time Estimation

Cost Estimation

5. RISK & TEAM DYNAMICS IN S/W ESTIMATION

Risk

Team Dynamics

6. SOME ESTIMATION TERMINALOGY

7. CASE STUDY

8. CONCLUSION

. APPENDIX

10. REFERENCES

ACKNOWLDEGEMENTS

We are very thankful to our lecturer Mr. Anand and tutor Mr. Vivek Handa for their support in doing this assignment. We are also thankful to our library staff for providing course books and good reference books to us.

ABSTRACT

The main aim of this essay is to provide a good understanding on project estimation. Improving the estimation techniques is as equally important as improving the development techniques. This document proposes a perfect estimation process for project size, effort, cost and time especially when considered in relation to project progress. This document contains the estimates used at various stages in a project with estimating techniques used, and the variety of messages communicated and the effect on the project including risk and team dynamics. Based on the size estimates obtained from the size models, this document presents the practical application in conducting software cost, time and effort estimation techniques to estimate the project schedule, effort and the development cost of the software project. Finally this paper demonstrates and practically imposed all of the tools and techniques in the online student registration database case study.

INTRODUCTION

An estimate is a projection from past to future, suitably adjusted to account for differences between past and future.

- past history of past projects

- future requirements

- adjustment factors locally determined

Our Project Estimation Practice covers a range of services including validating existing plans, implementing automated estimation tools, implementing function point sizing techniques, linking project estimation to project management initiatives, and collecting historical project data to improve future estimation efforts. For large development projects, the estimation step should really be regarded as a mini project. Few organizations have established formal estimation processes, despite evidence that suggests organizations without formal estimation are four times more likely to experience cancelled or delayed projects.

The main goals of Estimation process are

• Consistency

• Documentation and History of Estimates

• Continuing effort to bring estimates closer to actual

Project estimation is one of the most important portions in providing a software solution due to the following reasons

- It states the effort required implementing the solution, which in turn results in to financial requirements for the implementation.

- It includes the implementation schedules, which can be used for future planning and marketing, if necessary.

"A study by the Standish Group in 15 showed that on average only 16% of projects are completed successfully, 1% were cancelled and 5% were over budget and schedule".

This failure is basically because of bad estimates.

SOFTWARE PROJECT ESTIMATION

Effective software project estimation is one of the most challenging and important activities in software development. Proper project planning and control is not possible without a sound and reliable estimate. As a whole, the software industry doesn't estimate projects well and doesn't use estimates appropriately. We suffer far more than we should as a result and we need to focus some effort on improving the situation.

Under-estimating a project leads to under-staffing, under scoping quality assurance, and setting too short a schedule leads to low quality deliverables and loss of credibility.

Over-estimating a project can be just about as bad for the organization! If you give a project more resources than it really needs without sufficient scope controls it will use them. The project is then likely to cost more than it should.

For those who figure on avoiding this situation by generously padding the estimate.

The four basic steps in software project estimation are

1) Estimate the size of the development product.

) Estimate the effort in person-months or person-hours.

) Estimate the schedule in calendar months.

4) Estimate the project cost in dollars (or local currency)

SIZE ESTIMATION

An accurate estimate of the size of the software to be built is the first step. Sources of information regarding the scope of the project should be used as a start.

The main approaches to estimate product sizes are

By analogy Having done a similar project in the past and knowing its size, it is then possible to estimate each piece of the new project, as a percentage of the size of a similar piece in a previous project. The total project size can be estimated by adding up the size of the individual pieces. It is possible to produce a reasonably good size estimate by this method if accurate values are available for the previous project and if the new project is sufficiently similar.

By counting product features and using an algorithmic approach such as Function Points to convert the count into an estimate of size. Macro-level "product features" may include the number of subsystems, classes/modules, and methods/functions. More detailed "product features" may include the number of screens, dialogs, files, database tables, reports, messages, and so on.

EFFORT ESTIMATION

Once the size estimation process finishes, we can derive the effort estimate. This conversion from software size to total project effort can only be done if we have a defined software development lifecycle and development process that you follow to specify, design, develop, and test the software. Writing and reviewing documentation, implementing prototypes, designing the deliverables, and reviewing and testing the code take up the larger portion of overall project effort. The project effort estimate requires identifying and estimating, and then sum up all the activities we need to build a product of the estimated size.

The two main ways to derive effort from size are

1) Using organization's own historical data to determine how much effort previous projects of the estimated size have taken. This, of course, assumes

(a) Our organization has been documenting actual results from previous projects

(b) That we have at least one past project of similar size

(c) That we will follow a similar development lifecycle, use a similar development methodology, use similar tools, and use a team with similar skills and experience for the new project.

) If we don't have historical data from our own organization because we haven't started collecting it yet or because our new project is very different in one or more key aspects. We can use a mature and generally accepted algorithmic approach such as Barry Bohemia's COCOMO model or the Putnam Methodology to convert a size estimate into an effort estimate. Studying a significant number of completed projects from various organizations to see how their project sizes mapped into total project effort has derived these models.

NOTE These "industry data" models may not be as accurate as our own historical data, but they can give us useful ballpark effort estimates.

TIME ESTIMATION

Good time estimation is a very important success factor in a project.

Time estimation in software projects is not an easy task. Most software projects fail because the project is not finished on time. There are no mathematical algorithms that will calculate the exact number of hours that is required to finish our project. But there are good practices, rules of thumb and advises that can help us to make good time estimations. Basically this is the third step in estimating a software development project to determine the project schedule from the effort estimate. This generally involves estimating the number of people who will work on the project, what they will work on (the Work Breakdown Structure), when they will start working on the project and when they will finish (this is the "staffing profile"). Once we have this information, we need to lay it out into a calendar schedule. Again, historical data from our organization's past projects or industry data models can be used to predict the number of people we will need for a project of a given size and how work can be broken down into a schedule. If we have nothing else, a schedule estimation rule of thumb [McConnell 16] can be used to get a rough idea of the total calendar time required

Schedule in months = .0 (effort-months) 1/

Opinions vary as to whether .0 or .5 or even 4.0 should be used in place of the .0 value only by trying it out will you see what works for us.

COST ESTIMATE

Cost estimating involves developing an approximation (estimate) of the costs of the resources needed to complete project activities. Inputs to the cost estimating are Work Breakdown Structure, Resource requirements, Resource rates, Activity duration estimates, Estimating publications, Historical information, Chart of accounts, Risks.

Tools and Techniques for Cost Estimating

Analogous Estimating Analogous estimating, also called top-down estimating. This means, using the actual cost of a previous, similar project as the basis for estimating the cost of the current project. It is frequently used to estimate total project costs when there is a limited amount of detailed information about the project (e.g. in the early phases).

Parametric modeling It involved using project characteristics (parameters) in a mathematical model to predict project costs. Models may be simple or complex.

Bottom-up estimating It involves estimating the cost of individual activities or work packages, then summarizing or rolling up the individual estimates to get t a project total. The size and complexity of the individual activity or work package drive the cost and accuracy of bottom-up estimating.

Computerized tools Computerized tools like software spreadsheets are widely used to assist with cost estimating.

Software cost estimation is a major task. It must be well planned, carefully reviewed and continually updated. Good estimation comes from a good understanding of the requirements. A well thought project plan helps an estimator to better understand the requirements. Hence, a well thought project plan helps to obtain a good cost estimation. SCE is an iterative process, WBS must be updated constantly to reflect the up-today status of the project

There are many factors to consider when estimating the total cost of a project. These include labor, hardware and software purchases or rentals, travel for meeting or testing purposes, telecommunications, training courses, office space, and so on.

RISK AND TEAM DYNAMICS

IN

SOFTWARE ESTIMATION

RISK

Though a suite of estimation techniques is available, cost and schedule overruns still and will continue to exist. The problem stems from an inability to accurately assess risks associated with various software development projects. Actually running away from the risk is non-working strategy. We need to run towards it by developing ways to discover the lurking risks, estimate their impact, optimize our response, and monitor for change. These are the essential skills of Risk Management.

The risks can be summarized into the following three areas

1. The size and schedule are not correctly estimated. This results in poor implementations, emergency staffing and cost overrun caused by underestimating project needs.

. The improper assessment of staff skill levels. This result in misalignment of skills to task and ultimately miscalculations of schedules and level of effort required, as well as either underestimating or overestimating project staffing requirements.

. The lack of well defined objectives, requirements and specifications or unconstrained requirements growth during the software development life cycle. This results in forever changing project goals, frustration, and of course, cost overrun.

TEAM DYNAMICS

Team dynamics is also an important factor for the project success.

1. Team-building techniques

Recognize and apply the basic steps in team building goals, roles and responsibilities, introductions, and both stated and hidden agendas. (synthesis)

. Team facilitation techniques

Apply coaching, mentoring, and facilitation techniques to guide a team and overcome problems such as overbearing, dominant, or reluctant participants etc. (application)

. Team performance evaluation

Measure team progress in relation to goals, objectives, and metrics that support team success. (analysis)

4. Team tools

Define, select, and apply team tools such as nominal group technique, force field analysis, cultivating, and conversion/diversion. (application)

All potential risks and team building principles must be carefully defined and the impact to project estimation must be determined. This should be part of the software cost estimation. Thus, it is important to integrate risk impact into the cost, Time and effort estimations as software project is bound to have surprises.

CASE STUDY

Project Estimation

This section will illustrate methods used to estimate an approximate size, time, cost and effort needed to build an Online Student Registration System.

There are three types of data that will be stored student, administrator, and course data in our database.

Student Data contains name, address, phone, date of birth etc and requires about 77 070 000 bytes or 77 Mbytes (For 10,000 Students).

Administrator Data have name, date of birth, PIN, SSN etc and requires about 67 000 bytes or 67 Kbytes (For 1,000 faculty).

Course Database contains course title, section, units, room and time etc requires about 400 000 bytes or Mbytes.

The total database size is

77 Mbytes + Mbytes + 67 Kbytes = 106 Mbytes

This size total is relatively small and can be easily accommodated in a database server environment.

Resources

From the scope we can derive the following major functions. For each of these functions we can estimate how many lines of code (LOC) will be needed.

Lines of Code Estimation

Major Function / Task Estimated Lines of Code (LOC)

Student Login 400

Search Catalog 00

Check Academic History 00

Register for Classes 00

Pay Balance 100

Administrator Login 400

Update Catalog 00

Update Student Accounts 00

Total 500

Effort, Cost and Time

A team of five engineers will develop the product for the customer. Each engineer costs about $40.00 per hour plus the manager who costs $80.00 per hour.

Engineer Estimated Hours Estimated Cost

Naveen 1 $11,640

Surendra $8,880

Ramesh 61 $10,440

Shiva 167 $ 7,000

Phani 16 $10,880

Total Estimated Cost $48,840

Off-The-Shelf Products

This project will make use of off-the-shelf products to cut project costs and time down to a minimum. For the database, Microsoft's SQL Server software will be needed. Microsoft licenses their software based on the number of processors in your system at $5,000 per processor. Since we will have three servers each having 4 processors, there will be a total of 1 processors totaling $60,000.

Total miscellaneous cost to hold and access severs $87

An estimate of the total cost of all required resources sums ups to $1,474.

Team dynamics

For this case, we will organize the five-member team as a CD (Controlled Decentralized) team structure. A CD structure will yield a higher quality product for the customer. Although a CD structure is good for addressing very large project, we will apply this structure to a smaller group in order to keep the scope in focus.

Online student registration system consists of four people Naveen, Surendra, Ramesh, Shiva and Phani. Naveen is the manager and will coordinate specific tasks including assigning tasks to other engineers and placing controlling and tracking mechanisms for the project. Surendra, Ramesh have responsibilities in implementation, software testing. Shiva and Phani did operation maintenance. This team structure will allow problems to be solved horizontally. The team leader will communicate vertically with each engineer, thus keeping the project in focus.

Vertical Communication

CONCLUSION

Hopefully the above will help but there are too many unknowns for any hard and fast rules or concrete assurance that what is predicted will eventually be. The estimates obtained are used best for planning with regular feedback and re-estimation as the project progresses. At regular points throughout the project lifecycle revisit all the estimates and assumptions and re-calculate them using the latest information available. The realities of life are

i. It is impossible to predict the future 100%

ii. We will have a better idea of what to expect if you try to predict the future rather than if you don't bother at all

iii. Our predictions will be more accurate if they apply to the short term rather than to the long term.

APPENDIX

SOME ESTIMATION TERMINOLOGY or GLOSSARY

A

Activity

An element of work normally found on the WBS, that has an expected duration, cost, and resource requirements; also called task.

Activity duration estimation

Estimating the number of work periods that are needed to complete individual activities.

B

Base line

The original project plans plus approved changes.

C

Cost of quality

The cost of conformance plus the cost of nonconformance.

Cost of variance

The earned value minus the actual cost.

D

Duration

The actual amount of time worked on an activity plus elapsed time.

G

Gantt chart

A standard format for displaying project schedule information by listing project activities and their corresponding start and finish dated in a calendar format.

L

Lesson learned

Reflective statements written by project managers and their team members.

M

Mile stone

A significant event on a project with zero duration.

P

Project Temporary endeavor undertaken to create or provide service or product.

Project schedule (a.k.a., work-breakdown-structure)

Hierarchical decomposition of project into phases, activities, and tasks with resources and dependencies.

S

Stake holders

People involved in or affected by project activities.

T

Test subproject The subset of the project performed by the test team to provide test services to the project.

REFERENCES

BOOKS

1. PMI (000) A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide) 000, nd ed. PMI

. Schwalbe, K (001) Information Technology Project Management, nd edition, Course Technology, Cambridge

. Kendall & Kendall, Systems analysis and Design, 4th edition, Prentice hall, Inc

WEBSITES AND MAGAZINES

1. Accessed from www.business.com/popular/project_management_magazines on 14/0/00, copyright 001 Business.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

. Accessed from http//www.chacocanyon.com/pointlookout/0101.shtml on 15/0/00, copyright 18-00 Richard Brenner

. Accessed from http//www.cs.tcd.ie/publications/tech-reports/reports./TCD-CS-1-1.pdf on 1/0/00, copyright 000 Trinity College, Dublin. All Rights Reserved

4. Accessed from http//www.dsioj.dla.mil/spi/training/cest60.pdf on 16/0/00, copyright DSIOJ 00. All Rights Reserved

5. Accessed from http//interactive.sei.cmu.edu/Columns/Net_Effects/1/March/Net_Effects.mar.pdf on 0/0/00, copyright 00 by Carnegie Mellon University. All Rights Reserved

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There are many different relationships between knowledge and power. Some are more obvious than others. One of the more obvious ones is that you cannot have power without knowledge, and you cannot have knowledge without asking questions. This relationship is shown in Doctor Faustus and Federigo's Falcon.

In Doctor Faustus, Faustus is in such an immense need for power that he forgets about knowledge. Faustus is very stupid. He asks all the questions, but does not listen for the answers. Even as Lucifer's followers are "forever damned with Lucifer," which Mephostophilis tells him very bluntly, he still chooses not to listen, and continues asking pointless questions. He wants his power too much (7). He lets his want for power empower all of his thoughts so much that "the word 'damnation' terrifies him not" (5). It should terrify him though, because Mephostophilis had been giving little side comments to him the whole time about how bad it really is.

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In Federigo's Falcon, Monna came over to Federigo's house to ask him for the falcon. Federigo, not knowing that, cooked the falcon for her, because he wanted to impress her. If Federigo had asked why she had come to his house, Monna would have told him about the Falcon. If he had asked her questions he would have gained the knowledge. Federigo would have found out that she wanted the falcon. Then, he would gain power and would not have cooked the bird. If he had had the knowledge in the first place, he would have had more power over the situation. All he had to do was ask Monna a question and everything would have been solved.

In all of these stories the characters could have gained their knowledge so easily if they would have just asked questions. If they had, then they would have gained knowledge that could have helped them make wiser decisions that could have benefited each one of them in some way.

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